A Plot to Inflame: Russian Sabotage in Europe

Listen up, folks, 'cause this one's a doozy. We're talking about a potential escalation in Russia's game of sabotage, a move that could have major consequences for Europe and, let's be frank, the United States.

According to intelligence gathered by Western officials, Russian operatives, specifically the GRU, Russia's military intelligence agency, have been scheming to plant incendiary devices on cargo planes flying across Europe. And the kicker? They've already tested this sinister plot, setting fires at shipping hubs in the United Kingdom and Germany. These fires, while causing minimal damage, raise a chilling spectre: bombs on planes.

The motive behind this operation remains somewhat unclear. It could be as simple as trying to instill fear or issue a warning, like the blazes set at DHL logistics hubs. But intelligence agencies are digging deeper, exploring the possibility of a more ambitious and menacing goal: destroying planes on American runways, exploding bombs at U.S. warehouses, or even bringing down aircraft mid-flight. And it's not just the U.S. that's in the crosshairs; Europe is also a prime target for this alleged Russian plot.

Why? It's a move by Russia's President Vladimir Putin to retaliate against Western support for Ukraine. The Kremlin wants to weaken Western backing for Ukraine or, failing that, extract a price for it.

For the first two years of the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin held back from directly provoking NATO allies, fearing escalation. But that reticence seems to have evaporated. This is a game-changer, a shift from the old playbook.

"Hostile activity carried out on behalf of the Russian Federation is increasingly taking the form of terrorist activities."

- Poland's domestic intelligence service, in a communiqué last month

The Test Run and the Threat

The alleged test run of this plot targeted DHL shipping hubs in Leipzig, Germany, and Birmingham, England. These fires, thankfully, caused no injuries, but the potential implications of a successful attack are far-reaching.

The Wall Street Journal reported details of the plot, prompting DHL to confirm "two recent incidents involving shipments in our network." They are fully cooperating with authorities to protect their network and customers.

Polish authorities have arrested four suspects involved in planting the incendiary devices. Their National Prosecutor's Office claims the plot was a test run for placing explosive devices on planes bound for the United States and Canada. While Western officials are investigating, they cannot confirm this as the ultimate goal.

Escalating Tensions: A Potential Shift in Strategy?

It's possible that Russia is considering the option of blowing up cargo planes bound for America. However, this would mark a significant departure from Russia's current strategy of "horizontal escalation," where they carefully manage their responses to Western support for Ukraine.

An attack on a plane over the U.S. would inevitably evoke comparisons to 9/11 and would likely trigger a severe response from Washington, something Moscow has tried to avoid.

Yet, intelligence agencies haven't ruled out the possibility that Moscow is considering such a provocative attack. This becomes especially plausible if the U.S. provides Ukraine with more powerful weaponry or allows them to strike deeper into Russia, something the Biden administration has so far resisted.

A Broader Campaign of Sabotage

This alleged plot isn't an isolated incident. It's part of a wider campaign of sabotage by Russia in Europe. We're talking about vandalism, arson, and physical attacks on individuals.

In February, two assassins suspected of ties to Russian intelligence services killed a Russian defector in Spain. In the spring, U.S. intelligence agencies uncovered a Russian plot to assassinate the CEO of a German arms manufacturer. And in Estonia, several individuals are on trial for vandalizing the car of the country's interior minister, allegedly on behalf of Russian intelligence operatives.

"The scale of Russia's attempts to sow discord across Europe and the use of untrained criminals mean that it is very probable that at some point there may be an attack where someone is killed or where a civilian is seriously harmed."

- Spokesperson for Estonia's internal security service

The GRU: A Well-Known Player in European Sabotage

Behind the scenes, the GRU is the main player in this campaign of sabotage. This is an agency that European security officials are all too familiar with.

In 2018, GRU operatives used a potent nerve agent in the attempted assassination of Sergei Skripal, a GRU defector living in Britain. They are also suspected of similar assassination attempts against a Bulgarian arms manufacturer, as well as explosions at weapons plants in the Czech Republic and a thwarted coup in Montenegro.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, GRU operations in Europe initially slowed down as European countries expelled operatives and restricted travel for Russians. However, in the past year, the GRU has managed to get back in the game.

"The GRU in particular is on a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets. We’ve seen arson, sabotage and more. Dangerous actions conducted with increasing recklessness."

- Ken McCallum, Director General of Britain's MI5, last month

A New Era of Russian Sabotage: The Rise of Criminal Proxies

Though it's harder for Russian intelligence services to operate in Europe than before, they're finding new ways to carry out their operations. They're increasingly relying on criminal proxies, often hired online, to do their dirty work.

These proxies are relatively cheap and offer a degree of deniability, but they're unreliable and poorly trained, leading to botched operations.

"They can’t use their own people; they’re having to do with criminal elements. Criminals do stuff for cash. They are not reliable; they are not particularly professional, and, therefore, usually we are able to roll them up pretty effectively. It’s not amateurish; it’s just a little more reckless."

- Richard Moore, Head of MI6, in September

The Future of Russian Sabotage: A Game of Uncertainty

The current situation highlights the challenges of countering Russian sabotage, especially when the perpetrators are often criminal proxies with little to no knowledge of their true employers. And it's a reminder that Russia's intelligence services are willing to use increasingly risky tactics, driven by a desire to sow chaos and undermine Western support for Ukraine.

Comparative Table of Russian Sabotage Incidents

Let's take a look at the comparative table to get a clearer picture of the trends in Russian sabotage.

Incident	Year	Target	Method	Outcome
Sergei Skripal Assassination Attempt	2018	Sergei Skripal, GRU defector	Nerve Agent	Failed
Bulgarian Arms Manufacturer Assassination Attempt	2015	Unidentified Bulgarian Arms Manufacturer	Assassination	Failed
Czech Republic Weapons Plant Explosions	2014	Weapons plant	Explosions	Successful
Montenegro Coup Attempt	2016	Montenegro Government	Coup Attempt	Failed
DHL Shipping Hub Fires	2023	DHL Logistics hubs in Germany and UK	Incendiary Devices	Successful

This table offers just a glimpse of the GRU's activities. While the incidents vary in scale and outcome, they demonstrate the GRU's willingness to engage in acts of sabotage and violence.

This situation is far from resolved, and the potential for escalation remains high. Keep your eyes peeled for developments in the days and weeks ahead. This one's not over yet.